The REAL Numbers About Coronavirus You Will Not Hear in Mass Media

March 19, 2020

Health and Science , Society

Health and Science Blog, Kodoom.com Editorial:
With the spread of coronavirus in the world, people hear two groups of government and media commentators with totally opposing views about the seriousness of the coronavirus. One group, including the Presidents of Iran and the US, downplay the seriousness and hope stock markets will bounce back soon. Some, like the libertarian former US Congressman Ron Paul, even call it a hoax designed to distract people from the impending US Iran war and to take away people's civil liberties. The opposing group is alarmist and includes some prominent epidemiologists who predict some 40-70% of adults may be infected with the virus (video link). Which group is correct?

The following facts and news, rarely seen in sponsored mass media, are collected by Kodoom.com's editorial research staff from reliable and objective sources offering an accurate independent (non governmental) balanced assessment of the situation:

Incidence and Transmission Rates:

The real number of people infected with the virus may be 50-100 times more than the officially confirmed (tested) numbers released by governments, according to Professor Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College. Dr. Marty Makary, a medical professor at Johns Hopkins University, also wants people NOT to believe the official numbers: "There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.” So using these estimates and the official numbers (214000 infected globally as of today), the real numbers are closer to 5-10 million infections globally as of March 19, 2020 [Update on March 21: Numbers analyzed by Columbia University show real infections are 12 times more than detected COVID-19 cases in the U.S.]

Officials in countries like Iran and Sweden also have acknowledged the real number of people infected with the virus is much higher than the number of patients who have tested positive. In fact, some governments seem to resists making tests widely available to the public fearing the revelation of large numbers. In Sweden, Public Health Authority has confirmed this and changed its strategy and will not test citizens for coronavirus except on seriously symptomatic patients already in hospital or people belonging to a risk group (the elderly, diabetics, etc.) because they have already concluded the disease is extremely contagious.

Reproduction and incidence Rates: Disease experts estimate that each COVID-19 sufferer infects 2-4 others, that is a reproduction rate of 2-3 times higher than seasonal flu, which typically infects 1.3 new people for each patient. The reproduction rate of pathogens (disease causing organisms) depends partly on hosts (humans in this case) mixing (socializing) patterns. Even if using effective social distancing and quarantine strategies humans can reduce coronavirus reproduction rates to that of seasonal flu, it will still translate to a 10%-15% unvaccinated incidence rate (percent of world population who will be infected) or 700 million - 1 billion people to be infected by coronavirus (some 30-45 million in the United States) this season. As with flu cases, it is estimated that only half of the people infected will be symptomatic. Without proper measures such as social distancing, the incidence rate is expected to be 20-50% (2-3 times that of seasonal flu). The Head of Flu Epidemic Committee in Iran, has estimated that at least 30% of Iran's population may become infected by coronavirus due to poor social distancing practices in the country.

Incubation and Mortality Rates:

The average incubation period (From time infected to time symptomatic) of the 2019 novel coronavirus is estimated to be around 6 days. Furthermore, intensive care demand and death lags symptoms by another 2 weeks or so because it takes that long for a newly infected person to get critically ill or pass away. As a result of this 3 week delay between infection and death, mortality rates cannot be simply calculated by dividing the number of deceased to the number of confirmed cases. Also, the "true" number of deaths should include people who have died of coronavirus complications such as pneumonia, kidney or heart failure but not tested in hospitals for the virus.

True Mortality rates: According to CDC the mortality rate in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, was at 12% which is some 100 times mortality rates of regular flu. Other sources estimate the virus is 30-40 times more deadly than the regular seasonal flu because the mortality rate among the half of Americans who do not vaccinate against seasonal flu is about 0.16%. This confirms an average unvaccinated mortality rate of 4-6% for coronavirus as verified by Dr. Tabarsi, The Head of Epidemiology at Masih Daneshvari hospital which handles majority of coronavirus patients in Tehran.

Best and worst case scenarios: Using the numbers in this article, a best case scenario of 20% incidence and 2% mortality would translate to death of 0.4% of world population and a riskier case of 50% incidence and 5% mortality would mean death of 2.5% of world population. Even a worst case scenario will not seriously disrupt life on the planet. However, The contagious (reproductive) nature of the new virus is expected to stifle world economy and stock markets (due to social distancing efforts and reduced economic output) and overburden world's already overextended hospitals. There are currently about 2.8 hospital beds and only 0.2 ICU beds for every 1000 Americans. Most other countries have a lot less. According to a recent analysis by Harvard Global Health Institute (HGHI), the New York Times, and ProPublica, in a “moderate” scenario, hospitals in 40% of American markets wouldn’t have enough room for all patients with COVID-19, even if the beds were emptied of all other patients.

Vaccines, Precaution and the Future

Vaccines or social distancing are not expected to drastically reduce the total number of infections but to flatten the epidemic curve from peaking too fast and overburdening healthcare systems and intensive care units. For seasonal flu, even among the vaccinated still 5-10% get infected and about 0.07% of the infected die. So the main risk of coronavirus seems to be a combination of high reproduction and mortality rates (but not high enough that would slow it down fast due to death of most hosts). The much-researched and expensive flu vaccines are sometimes less than 20% effective and we still do not know much even about seasonal flu, let alone novel viruses such as coronavirus-19 with mysterious origins and behavior (now Chinese and US governments blame each other for the origin of the virus).

Although Bill Gates makes an honest assessment of the coronavirus as "A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic", some scientists already believe coronavirus (like other diseases arisen out of human ignorance, selfishness, and shortsightedness) is here to stay (like flu) for posterity. The most likely outcome of the coronavirus outbreak is a new seasonal disease, a fifth “endemic” coronavirus.

Historically, pathogens kill the most vulnerable member of a species. Reliance on modern hospitals instead of a healthy nutrition and lifestyle may not be the wisest strategy for humans in the long term. Moderating social interaction, military spending and consumerism, and instead caring for nature (less consumption, less driving, fewer guns and bombs, less gasoline, less pollution, less pesticides, etc.) may prove to serve the human race in the long term. Honesty, empathy and unity may also be good long term strategies for homospaiens. Because governments still hide facts from their citizens, and nations from each other, and because humans do not act in a united coordinated global way, viruses and other problems (such as crime and poverty) spread from population to population and in waves, so slowing down in one country may only mean a new wave in another country.

Some Reliable Sources:

Dr. Sam Harris (neuroscientist) and Dr. Nicholas Christakis (sociologist and physician) objectively discuss real numbers and risks, A great objective podcast by two distinguished scientists

Coronavirus reality check: 7 myths about social distancing, busted
By Dr. Marc Lipsitch and Dr. Joseph Allen (Professors at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

A candid podcast (video) and warning by Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, and Professor at the University of Minnesota

Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus

Dr. Yanis Varoufakis, DiEM25 co-founder, on the economic and political impact of the coronavirus, a fresh outlook by renowned Greek socialist about how this time bailing out bankers and stock market on the shoulders of the working class may not work as in 2008 and how the virus has deepened the crisis that capitalism has faced since 2008 in out of control income and wealth disparity in the world.

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus but most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain!

Some possible available treatments for the virus identified so far, But avoid certain painkiller and anti-inflammatory medicine such as Ibuprofen.

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