The Future of Extreme Climate in Iran, A Scientific Model
Independent Aggregator of Iran-related News/Events, Kodoom.com: In the aftermath of recent devastating flash floods in Iran, possibly triggered by global warming trends, a recent scientific article in Nature predicts that Iran will be experiencing unprecedented climate-related problems such as drying of lakes and rivers, dust storms, record-breaking temperatures, droughts, and floods. The research paper published by Karim C. Abbaspour of Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology in Duebendorf, Switzerland, uses the ensemble of five high-resolution climate models to project maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall distribution, calculate occurrences of extreme temperatures (temperatures above and below the historical 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively), analyze compound of precipitation and temperature extremes, and determine flooding frequencies across the country.
The authors of the paper found that compared to the period of 1980–2004, in the period of 2025–2049, Iran is likely to experience more extended periods of extreme maximum temperatures in the southern part of the country, more extended periods of dry (for ≥120 days: precipitation <2 mm, Tmax ≥30 °C) as well as wet (for ≤3 days: total precipitation ≥110 mm) conditions, and higher frequency of floods. Overall, the combination of these results projects a climate of extended dry periods interrupted by intermittent heavy rainfalls, which is a recipe for increasing the chances of floods. The paper concludes without thoughtful adaptability measures, some parts of Iran may face limited habitability in the future.
You can see detailed predictions in the full article HERE.
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