Is Trump Bluffing? Predictions by Informed Iranian and Israeli Analysts

In what follows, informed analysts from inside Iran and Israel share their prediction of what happens next after Trump's multiple warnings against Iran. They seem to concur that appeasing China will be a prerequisite to any US attack on Iran.

Iranian TV analyst, Mostafa Khosh Cheshm says Trump will NOT attack Iran because “He always bluffs. We have read his book The Art of the Deal, and know he is not ready for the costs of longer wars as he knows well we will target oil fields and close the strait of Hormuz. Trump usually backs down when he sees resistance!”

Israeli analyst General Amir Avivi on Israeli TV predicts any of the likely events ,namely Preemptive strike by Iran, Preemptive strike by Israel, or an attack by the US on Iran, should end up in regime change in Iran. He says there are many prerequisites for any US attack that take time.

Ali Akbar Raefipur, Islamic analyst in Iran warns Iranian authorities that Azerbaijan and Emirates will assist Israel and US in their next operation against Iran, He also believes China would not be happy with instability in oil supply if Iran targets regional oil fields:

Behrouz Youssian, Israeli intelligence officer of Iranian descent, shares his assessment in an interview in Persian. He believes both Trump and Netanyahu were surprised by the degree of violence and crackdown by the Iranian regime but they both know this is their last chance for regime change in Iran, which requires massive preparations and coordination with all Arab and European allies. He asserts Trump is interested in oil from Iran. He confirms that in the 12-day war, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, England, United Arab Emirates, France and US helped Israel defend against Iranian missiles, but there are still 3500 ballistic missiles left in Iran for use in the next war. He believes Turkey, afraid of being sandwiched between a non-Islamist Iran and its future Israeli ally, is against regime change in Iran. He predicts that if the US can assure China or steady flow of oil from Iran, military operations and regime change in Iran are likely.

Menashe (Manouchehr) Amir, another Israeli analyst of Iranian descent, calls the days ahead “Countdown to a bloody feast for the Iranian regime.” In his analysis (in Persian), he says if the US doesn't move soon, Israel may lead a preemptive strike.

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