Seven Reasons Ayatollahs Believe This Time Their End is Near
Opinion Letter
1. The Revolution of Women and the Oppressed: Unlike previous movements, this time the poor, the middle class, the youth and women are active in all protests. There are even reports of children and families killed during the crackdown on protests. Many underpaid police officers and low level IRGC officers, suffering from economic slowdown, seem reluctant to use violence against the protesters. It was reported that in some smaller towns (like Abdanan), local police forces have surrendered their station and weapons to the protesters and joined them.
2. Internet and Economic Shut Down: Despite repeated claims by Iranian TV that "Streets are Calmer tonight," censorship and Leader's threat to crush the thugs on the street, and direct order to IRGC to open fire on protesters, the government had to resort to total shut down of internet in a country of 80 million people despite the heavy crippling impact on the already paralyzed economy, which has fueled the protests. Not content with cutting all internet connections, the government is even shutting down coffee shops and stores that pass out "calls to protest" paper flyers. Even Starlink is reportedly being jammed. This level of connectivity black out is unprecedented and a sign of deep fear in the regime of people networking with each other. Shutting down schools, offices and factories has further crippled the collapsing economy, and will only intensify the protests, which were fueled by 40% currency devaluation and 80% inflation in food prices.
3. No Powerful Allies Left: Ayatollahs' main allies, China and Russia have made sweetheart deals with America. China seems content with steady supply of bargain-priced oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, US, and Venezuela, replacing Iranian oil under sanctions. Russia seems too dependent on making a deal to end the Ukraine war and crippling sanctions by receiving land concessions in Ukraine. Putin and Netanyahu seemed coordinated and in agreement in eliminating Iran's influence in Syria. Saudi Arabia and Russia will both greatly benefit from even temporary disruptions in Iran’s oil and gas exports to the world. HAMAS leaders have preferred terms (and rewards) of peace over proxy support by Iran. Hezbollah is decapitated and Yemen is now facing threats by Somaliland, Israel’s new ally. Ayatollahs have no real friends left!
4. Enraged Masses Arming Themselves: Unlike previous protests, today’s protesters seem enraged enough to fight back against crack downs and even chase armed riot guards with empty hands, rocks, knives or hunting rifles. In several cities, gunfights have been reported. At least 80 protesters have been killed but a large number of government forces have also been hurt or killed. Tasnim news agency, close to IRGC, claims in one area alone (Dogonbadan, Yasuj) at least 19 policemen and Basij forces have been killed or injured in clashes. If true, this is unprecedented. Although government sources blame Israel and the US for arming protesters and for the bloodshed, citizen videos from inside Iran show extremely high levels of anger and aggression among protesters apparently fed up with years of suppression. Numerous military and Basij bases, mosques, banks, buses and government offices have been set on fire. The Ayatollahs know the crowd seems intent on fighting back hard this time.
5. Mass Exodus of Government Officials: Top government officials have been increasingly sending their families abroad, particularly to countries like Canada and Turkey. Today, a British MP (Tom Tugendhat) has claimed there is indeed a surge in visa applications for immigration to Europe by regime officials. There is news that the Leadership of the country has been planning emergency flights to Moscow if conditions worsen. Many pro-government analysts, both conservative and reformist, have indicated there seems to be no real desire at the top to fix the “systemic corruption” in the country (recent interviews of Akbar Raefipour and Ali Jannati). Former IRGC NAVY commander recently admitted: "There is not much time left to make tough decisions. Everyone in the regime agrees old paradigms have led to a dead end. We are facing existential threats but I don't see a paradigm shift soon and am not hopeful."
6. The US - Israeli Mandate: Trump and Netanyahu have tied their legacy to a successful Middle East peace plan, which seems to include surrender of Hamas and Ayatollahs. Both Trump and Netanyahu need a major victory over Ayatollahs to release some of the immense political pressures they are experiencing domestically (Trump for Epstein files and inflation, and Netanyahu for Constitutional and War-related challenges by reformists, the judiciary and the opposition).
7. The International Desire for Regime Change in Iran: Apart from the US and Israel, Arabs, Turks and Europeans all seem OK with the regime change in Iran. Iran’s proxy ideological wars against Sunni Muslims have alienated Arabs and Turks. The short-sighted decision by Iran’s Supreme Leader to please Russians by sending them drones to kill Ukrainian civilians, was also a strategic blunder that alienated Europeans and turned them into adversaries. Imposing the snap-back sanctions last year was a crippling blow to the Ayatollahs’ economy.
Opinion by Dr. Bazargan
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