Who Benefits from Prolonging the War? Interesting Analyses from Iran and Israel
The following analyses, from opposing viewpoints in Iran and Israel, paint accurate and interestingly similar pictures of the situation in Iran. They all conclude that superpowers (US, China and Russia) welcome IRGC’s hardline decisions as they financially and politically benefit from prolonging the conflict, with costs being paid by the people of Iran, Europe (particularly Ukraine), Southeast Asia and Arab countries. The videos are all in Persian and a summary is outlined here:
Eliahu Behruz Yusian, Israeli analyst (former intelligence officer) of Iranian heritage and founder of Real Middle East, believes US, Russia and China benefit from ongoing tensions with a radical Iranian Regime. He seems justified in his analysis. America will sell more weapons to Arab countries as they deepen their dependence on America. Russia sells more oil at higher prices and and benefit from Iran’s deepening dependence on Russia. They also benefit from weakened NATO/US alliance and diversion of resources away from Ukraine to the Persian Gulf. China is minimally impacted by higher oil prices as they will trade precious Iranian oil for weapons and supplies, and benefit from Iran’s deepened strategic dependence on China. Russia and China also benefit from engaging America in yet another costly quagmire in the Middle East (after Iraq and Afghanistan).
Yusian keenly observes that hardcore zealots in Iran are following the path of Saddam Hussein, who by firing missiles at Israel and threatening Arab neighbors, knowingly or unknowingly stretched his resources and credibility too thin (by picking too many enemies) and played into the US hands by giving them and the world the legitimacy to finish his isolated regime.
Interestingly, some analysts inside Iran seem to agree with the Israeli analyst on the benefits of China and Russia from a prolonging conflict. Ahmad Zeidabadi is an Iranian journalist and political analyst and a notable figure in the Iranian reform movement. He has been arrested multiple times for his journalistic work and criticism of the Islamic Regime. In the following videos, he discusses how Russia and China benefit from prolonging Iran-US conflict/war; Russia by higher oil prices and NATO/US weakness in Ukraine, and China by engaging US in a costly quagmire which only makes Iran more dependent on China. He also offers a solution to end the war with mutually acceptable ceasefire terms that would benefit the entire Middle East and even Israel in the long term. He believes Iran should ultimately help disarm the Palestinian militia in exchange for Israel returning to 1967 borders for a lasting Peace.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, also a reformist and a critic of Russia’s and China’s roles in discouraging Iran’s normalization of ties with the world, offers a somewhat similar proposal and roadmap for ending the war. He suggests that Iran place limits on its nuclear program under international monitoring as well as reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to sanctions. He also proposes that Gulf states, UN Security Council powers and possibly Egypt, Pakistan and Turkiye should form a regional security framework to “ensure nonaggression, cooperation and freedom of navigation”, including arrangements to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Also, “To further consolidate peace, Iran and the United States should initiate mutually beneficial trade, economic and technological cooperation,” Zarif added.
Inside Iran Pro-Russia and pro-China influencers, such as MP Zohrehvand and Ali Akbar Raefipour are using the current crisis in advocating for for deepening strategic ties with both Russia and China.
In Israel, IDF is using the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf as an opportunity to pummel Hezbollah positions. IDF's long-standing goal is to dissociate Iran and Hezbollah and separate the conflicts with them.
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