How Liberals and Minorities Helped Rohani win Re-election? Data analysis
Independent Source of Iran-related News/Events, Kodoom.com: On 19 May 2017, Hassan Rouhani was re-elected for a second term in Iran's Presidential elections, with 57% of the 41 million votes (73% of eligible voters). Rohani's camp claim there may be 4 million more pro-Rohani votes unaccounted for (news link). Still, tabulated voting results and poll numbers clearly show Rohani owes his re-election to the widespread engagement of liberals and minorities, and their overwhelming support, as shown by break-down in numbers:
- According to IPP polls, some 90% of minorities and 78% of highly educated voters supported Rohani. In these polls, Rouhani defeated Raisi by a 100% vs. the 40% margin in general election.
- According to state-by-state results, Rouhani's top states were Sistan (74%), Tehran (70%), Kermanshah (69%), Kordestan (68%), Gilan (67% of votes), Alborz (65%) and Yazd (64% of votes). These are states with large population of religious or ethnic minorities (Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Sistan, Yazd) or liberal minded secular voters (Tehran, Gilan, Alborz).
- Iranian expatriates outside the country voted overwhelmingly (81%) in Rohani's favor. Outside Iran, Rohani received the largest number of votes in the US with 96% of around 30,000 votes, in Germany with 96% of the 12500 votes, and in Australia with 98% of about 10,000 votes.
- Raisi received the majority of votes in conservative and religious states of Qom (71.2%), South Khorasan (67%) and Khorasan Razavi (58%), homes to holy shrines of Shia Saints and theological Shia seminary schools (Howzeh).
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