Lessons Learned by Israeli and Iranian Leaders in the 12-Day Delusional War
Israel claims the 12-day war was worth the cost because it set back Iran's nuclear weaponization program by years. Trump claims the program was "obliterated." Iran claims they had plans for a minimum 6-month war and ensured their nuclear enrichment plans will continue. It is hard to know who is bluffing here because politicians are like illusionists. But, politicians can also become "self-delusional" and fool themselves! Here are some examples of miscalculations and self-delusions on all sides:
- Both Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Katz (Left in the picture), who threatened Ayatollah Khamenei’s life, wrongly assumed Iran’s power hierarchy is top-down and vertical, similar to that of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Assad in Syria. During the 12-day war with Iran, Israel leaders learned the hard way that the power structure of the Ayatollah’s regime follows those in Russia and China, where thousands of local oligarchs and loyalists such as local clerics/Imams (appointed by the Leader), Islamic Guidance offices, Basij (militia) and IRGC Chiefs, maintain order in different provinces. In return for their full obedience to the central regime, these provincial loyalists receive perks, benefits (share of oil/gas revenue), weapons, a degree of autonomy and protection from Tehran. An estimated 5% or four million of Iran’s population either serve in these local rings under Provincial oligarchs or receive benefits by being related to the local hierarchy or families of martyrs and war veterans. Although the low (35%) turn out in Iran's recent elections implies that about two-thirds of Iranians have lost their hope in peaceful reforms and transition to a secular government, it is the 5% heavily embedded in provincial power centers that control local economy, weapons/missiles, prisons and judiciary in order to resist reforms or regime changes.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader and IRGC’s top commanders wrongly assumed what happened to Hezbollah and Hamas leaders will not happen to them if they attend peace talks with Trump. They dragged their feet in the negotiations wrongly assuming Trump, contrary to Netanyahu, would ultimately agree to Iran's right to limited uranium enrichment. They did not realize that Trump and Netanyahu were also buying time with the negotiations to prepare for heavy surprise strikes against Ayatollah's command and nuclear structures.
- The Iranian leadership had the wrong assumption (delusion) that Russia, China (N. Korea) and Pakistan would come to its help. Netanyahu and Trump had the wrong assumption (delusion) that regime change in Iran is quick and easy without interference by China and Russia. What all sides learned: China and Russia are OK with a weakened Iran (that would make it more dependent on them) but not OK with a chaotic regime change resulting in a pro-Western leadership that normalizes trade with Israel/America and sells oil at market prices (free of sanctions).
What did the world learn? People learned that both Netanyahu and the Ayatollahs, while strongly driven by a paranoid fear of each other, are more responsive to external forces than peaceful domestic reforms. The constant demonization and hatred of “enemies” cost both sides billions of dollars in damages and hundreds of lives (nearly 3000 casualties on the Israeli side and 6000 on the Iranian side).
The Future:
Let’s all pray that Israeli and Iranian radicals have learned these valuable and costly lessons, and will switch from an uncompromising militant “iron fist” approach to conciliatory compromises in domestic human rights matters: Secular reform and women rights in Iran, Gaza human rights and Palestinian statehood in Israel. It will be a win-win for all sides if this happens. If not, both Israeli and Iranian radicals will drag on the costly conflict but will ultimately lose their grip on domestic and international politics for years to come.
Letters to Editor, by R. Bazargan
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