Who Will Survive: Ayatollahs or Trump?
Political Editorial by R. Bazargan
Between Trump and the Ayatollahs, one side is bluffing and not being honest. And the world will soon find out who.
Trump first pledged military action against the Ayatollahs and support for Iranian protesters if any protesters were killed or executed. To this date, thousands are confirmed dead and many executed. Islamic Revolutionary Court’s Prosecutor in Tehran openly mocked Trump as a paper tiger and said executions would proceed.
Then Trump implied Ayatollahs were begging for a meeting and fearing the US Armada, ready to surrender, as he demanded before, their nuclear, missile and proxy programs. he said Ayatollahs are afraid of being attacked. Shortly after these claims, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Snub Trump by seizing two oil tankers in Persian Gulf.
But Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader implies Iran is not conceding anything and mocks Trump's bluff encouraging a "thousand" protesters that were crushed: "[Trump] says that he brought ships. We shall not be scared by these things or threats.. We have survived many such threats."
Supporting the Ayatollah, Iranian members of congress, keep chanting "Death to America" and against any concessions.
Amongst all this, the news comes out of direct US-Iran talks this Friday in Oman. So who is backing down?
Ali Bagheri, deputy to Iran’s National Security Council says: “There is absolutely no discussions on transferring Iran’s enriched stockpile.” Separately, Shamsolvaezin, member of the Iranian government’s Press Relations confirms Iran will not abandon its intercontinental missile or satellite programs.
But yesterday, in an interview with NBC, Trump repeated his threats and said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “should be very worried!” and will negotiate because he fears war with US! He implied Iranians are ready to concede in Friday talks. But Trump's claims are in direct conflict with the Ayatollahs' repeated assertion that their ballistic missile program is “a red line in negotiations.”
On the other hand, Iran’s missile program is Israel’s "red line" and Israeli officials have reportedly warned the US that Iran is stalling and acting in bad faith. Witkoff was said to have responded that the US understands Israel’s red lines!
Several Iranian officials and leaders have called Trump a “paper tiger,” and a gambling-type poker player who bluffs a lot but backs down if facing real costs. Khoshcheshm an analyst close to the government, said on Iranian TV: “We know Trump will not attack us. He always bluffs. We have read his book The Art of the Deal and know he is not ready for costs of a long wars as he knows well we will target oil fields and close the strait of Hormuz.” To up the ante, Ayatollahs are even threatening Trump’s personal life too. Saeed Jalili, a politician close to Iran’s Supreme Leader recently said: “As per our Supreme Leader, we will make sure Trump "personally" pays a price for our losses!”
So who is playing who? who is deceptive and lying? Who is stalling and buying time? Who is the paper tiger which will collapse? and Who will run out of time and lose this geopolitical chess game?
Anyone betting on Netanyahu and Trump as winners, should know Ayatollahs have out-survived 8 US Presidents. They have learned from North Korea that their nuclear and missile program is a key deterrent against the US and Israel. But then the Ayatollahs realize without China’s economic and military lifelines, the unpopular North Korean regime would collapse.
Ayatollahs know if they can outsurvive Trump and Netanyahu, they would consolidate their regional and domestic hegemony and indeed approach North Korea’s staying power.
Trump and Netanyahu are facing some big questions. Are Ayatollahs as suicidal as they claim to be? Are they powerful enough to inflict heavy damages on the regional oil fields and Israel’s heavily-populated civilian and nuclear sites? Trump may be using negotiations as a stress test to see how many concessions Ayatollahs will offer. Concessions are signs Ayatollahs are the paper tigers whose serious threats are merely bluffs and a last resort to escape the inevitable collapse under domestic and international pressures.
But what if any concessions by the Ayatollahs are superficial ploys to buy time to build their arsenal, as in previous talks.
It appears that by agreeing to negotiate under pressure by someone who has called for their "full surrender" in the past, Ayatollahs are buying time to outlast yet another US President.
Trump may try to minimize his personal costs by kicking this can yet to another US President, as others have done. Netanyahu, however, realizes this may be his last chance to neutralize what he has called "the Snake's head." Israeli General Amir Avivi recently predicted any of the three likely events in the weeks ahead, namely preemptive strikes by Iran, Israel, or America, would end up in regime change in Iran.
Between Trump and the Ayatollahs, one side is bluffing and not being honest. And the world will soon find out who.
Inside Iran, Tehran MP Mohammad Saraj has been surprised by the level of anger among protesters: “Violence was unprecedented. We think protesters were fed some drugs or ecstasy! Some were even unafraid of bullets, walking straight towards armed riot police and daring them to shoot!”
It’s too early to predict Trump’s or Ayatollahs' next move. But with Ayatollahs being responsible for the death of thousands of Israeli and Iranian citizens, and with Israel being responsible for thousands of Ayatollahs' proxies, guards (in Syria, Lebanon) and Palestinian deaths, if there is a confrontation, it would probably be bloody but quick.
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