Post-War Iran: Like Turkey or North Korea? It All Depends on Trump's Wisdom
Reader Analysis and Comments, by Dr. Bazargan
I believe the US and Israel would never start this war if they thought Iran's ideological regime is popular with Iranians. Some 80% of Iran's population have demanded, through protests and riots, a democratic system of government. Voter participations in many Islamic elections are around 20%. Yet Ideological leaders of Iran, who are Messianic Shia Muslims, have crushed any pro-democracy, pro-Western reforms or protests because they distrust a Western style democracy. I wish these leaders would read books by Thomas Paine, a lesser known but influential figure in American revolution, independence and Constitution. In his books, Paine argues that democracy is beneficial for everyone in a society because both the elite and the masses feel ownership in the welfare of the system.
But the destiny of post-war Iran will be most likely determined not by the Iranian regime but by the actions and decisions of two men: Trump and Putin.
There are three possibilities ahead for a post-war Iran:
1. If Trump decides to win the control of Strait of Hormuz and 20% of the world's oil market by decimating Iranian infrastructure and inflicting heavy death tolls (both on Iranians and Americans) he will lose the trust and goodwill of Iranians and Americans. His party will lose the next US election and the US will lose the respect and goodwill of the world! Iran is not Venezuela so Trump would very soon find out, even if he succeeds in occupying Iran, that occupation or puppet regimes would face serious resistance by the proud Iranian nation with a 3000 year old civilization.
2. Putin's actions are even more important than Trump's. Successful precision attacks on US forces confirm claims by EU leaders and Zelenskyy Putin has supplying critical intelligence and military assistance to the IRGC Regime. This ensures Iran is hitting back Americans hard and the war is prolonged. That means (1) Higher oil prices and more sales for Russia, (2) Less US weapons sent to Ukraine, (3) US attrition in a new front other than Ukraine. A prolonged war is a Win-Win-Win for Russia. Russia is now signing new lucrative contracts with countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, India and benefiting from sanction waivers on sales to Europe and other countries. IRGC leaders running Iranian defense, who are closely aligned with, and trained by, Russians, have sidelined moderate reformists like Zarif, Pezeshkian and Rohani. If Trump heavily destroys Iran's civilian and economic targets, an economically devastated impoverished Iran will be heavily militarized and ruled by pro-Russian IRGC heavily depending on lifelines by Russia. This would make post-war Iran another North Korea. This may be the worst outcome for Iranian citizens but the most ideal for Putin's Russia. By prolonging the war or bombing them back to "the stone age" as he threatened, Trump would be making this scenario likely and indirectly serving Putin's interests, the same thing he might do in Europe by pulling out of NATO and easing sanctions on Russia. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has recently written on a post on X (twitter) that moves made by Trump look like "Putin’s Dream Plan!"
3. The third post-war Iran model is a Regime like the one in Turkey, an ambitious free-market economy with close ties to both US and Russia, offering semi-democratic freedoms for both Islamists and seculars. But the pro-Russian IRGC leaders do not like this model. Otherwise, they would empower as the country's new leader President Pezeshkian, a nationalist Islamist of Azerbaijani ethnicity and respected by both Turkish and Azerbaijani Republic leaders.
So what can Trump do to turn post-war Iran from a North Korean model to a Turkish model?
The answer is (1) Not bomb Iran's national (non military) infrastructures and civilian areas. Bombing such areas is the fastest way to alienate nationalist revolutionaries and dissidents and to kill any hopes of a successful popular uprising against the regime. (2) Wrap up the war quickly by empowering/protecting Iranian citizens, not ethnic mercenaries or separatists from outside the country, to fight for themselves and hopefully achieve peaceful reforms or a successful revolution (hopefully a peaceful one). Trump's favorite political analyst Mark Levin has even recommended arming Iranian protesters so they can defend themselves against a heavily armed minority.
I believe Iranians are generally milder-mannered and more secular (less ideological) than Turks and would have friendly ties with US and Israel, and peaceful relations with Russia and China and Arab countries. This last scenario, of a grassroots revolution, will be the least bloody, least costly and most peaceful outcome of this war only if Trump and Putin let go of their colonial ambitions of controlling the country. Maybe they should both read Thomas Paine's books too. Old colonial models of occupying countries and controlling nations did not work!
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- Videos: Iranian Regime Strategists Concur it is Unpopular, Unreformable, Corrupted
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