How Would the New Middle East Look Like?

19 hours ago

The following video and news clips may give us a clue on what to expect for the new world order once Trump starts his second term this month:

Iran tested its new cruising air defense system

Trump, in his second term, is entering his round 2 against China and Iran. According to analyst Kevork Almassian, Russia has betrayed Iran and is already colluding with the US, Israel and Turkey in Syria.

With Iranians out, Syria will be divided along ethno-centric lines (Kurdish, Turkish allies, and Arab allies of Qatar) with a large buffer zone controlled by Israel.

Abandoned by Turkey and Russia as former allies, Iranians have stepped up their nuclear program as a last strong deterrence against an Israeli/US aggression.

Houthis in Yemen, Iran's last regional proxies, are being pounded by Israelis who seem to be preparing for a possible attack against Iran's nuclear weapons after removing the missile threats from Yemen. To block an Israeli attack against Iran, Trump is pushing Iran to abandon their nuclear technology, regional political ambitions and hostilities towards Israel. To show its defensive strength to Israel and Trump, Iran has successfully tested new cruising air defense system near Natanz nuclear enrichment site (as seen in Iranian news clip video and image above).

The communist China may become Islamic Iran's new big brother replacing Russia and Iranian regime's last hope to stand up to the US and Israeli pressures. Houthis also seem to be Iran's last proxy deterrence against Israel. China is said to supply pro-Iranian Yemeni rebels (Houthis) with advanced weapons:

After all, Iran and China seem to face Taliban in Afghanistan as a common threat and China really wants access to Iran's oil and natural gas reserves at low prices given Iran's strategic vulnerability and fragility.

Pro-Russia Iranian conservatives close to Iran's Supreme Leader, like Hossein Shariatmadari have warned the government not to negotiate with Trump or surrender.

There are some positive signs for Iran too. Saudi Arabia and Qatar seem to be interested in curbing Turkey's pan-Turkic ambitions and preventing it from expanding beyond Syria by being nicer with the Persians and investing in their economy as a new strong military ally. But this will not happen if Iranians see Saudi Arabia is offering aid to Israel and US in decimating Houthi bases.

Another positive sign for Iran, is Trump's apparent reluctance to engage in a war on behalf of Israel as evidenced by a recent video posted by Trump quoting Jeffrey Sachs that says “Netanyahu is still trying to get us to fight Iran to this day. He is a deep dark son of a bitch because he's gotten us into endless wars!”

What Will Happen?

If Iranian leadership, to stay in power, decides to continue their nuclear ambitions and anti-Israeli stance and ignore Trump's and Israel's pressures and if Trump's tariff pressure on China and political/military pressures on Iran prove to be too harsh, it will force Iran and China together and make China Iran's new big brother replacing Russia,

But...

If Iranian leadership, to stay in power, instead complies with Trump's demands, abandon its nuclear ambitions and deescalates tensions with Israel and Saudi Arabia, it may bring Iran new economic opportunities as the lifeline it badly needs in order to cut its military dependence on China and possibly Russia.

So the future of the alliances in the Middle East will depend on:

1) How strong are Trump's demands on Iran vs. China. Strong carrots for Iran and sticks for China would make Iran-China alliance less likely, and 2) Which faction in Iran prevails: The pro-Russia, pro-China or Pro-America faction? Today's speech by Iran's Supreme leader was as usual anti-American, at least Today's speech by Iran's Supreme leader was as usual very Anti-American, at rhetorically. He implied that the pro-American reformists should understand why it's more difficult to forgive America's transgressions (vs. other superpowers like Russia?).

Related to China: