Two Tumultuous Months Ahead in Europe and the Middle East

Nov 22, 2024

Opinion Letter

Here is what possibly lies ahead of January 2025, when Trump starts his second term:

Russia and Ukraine are grandstanding by using their most destructive missiles and drones against each other. Russia keeps talking about nuclear options. Ukraine is authorized to use long range missiles against targets deep inside Russia. Both sides are trying to secure maximum gains before Trump forces them into some sort of a peace accord.

In return for pressures on Ukraine to agree to a peace accord, Russia and Syria are pressured to block Iran's transfer of weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. This would help Israel and Trump's goal of weakening Hezbollah enough to force them into accepting Israel's terms of cease fire. With more than half of their infrastructure and leadership ranks eliminated, and without strong support by Iran, Hezbollah would take years to recover militarily and politically.

UPDATE, Nov. 28: As part of pressure on Syria and Russia to remain neutral in the Israel-Iran-Hezbollah conflict, and on the same day of a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, rebel Islamist armies close to Turkey and possibly Israel and the US, have attacked and captured Aleppo and killed a large number of Syrian troops and at least one senior Iranian commander.

Trump seem to be poised to restart economic pressures on Iran. There are rumors China is already slowing down oil purchases from Iran. By economically weakening Iran and Hezbollah, Trump hopes to bring them to a regional peace accord, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Israel, that recognizes the states of Israel and Palestine (under moderate factions not HAMAS). It would take years for Gaza to rebuild its infrastructure so they would heavily depend on economic help by rich Arab states and political sponsorship by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. HAMAS, like Hezbollah may remain on life support in a weakened state for years.

As the Israel-Syria tensions intensify, Erdogan seems to be advancing Turkey's territorial gains inside Syria's Kurdish regions. Erdogan also seems unhappy about not being a player in the upcoming peace accord (Israel-Saudi Arabia) so he is using harsh rhetoric against Israel, appealing to Palestinians and aggrieved Muslims worldwide. Turkey may even host HAMAS leaders if they are forced to leave Gaza. This gives Turkey's Erdogan a spiritual position among Muslims, hoping to replace Iran as Israel's main critic, except Turkey heavily relies on economic trade with Europe and Israel so Erdogan's leadership may be mostly symbolic.

In Iran, IRGC Chief, Commander Salami has repeatedly issued harsh warnings and pledged an "unimaginable" response to Israel's attack on Iran. Yet, as of now, the response has not materialized perhaps because of the diplomatic negotiations behind closed doors. These negotiations are buying both Israel and Iran some precious time, for Israel to weaken Hezbollah beyond the point of recovery, and for Iran to speed up its nuclear program perhaps towards weapon grade enrichment levels. So Hezbollah's resistance will buy Iran more time for its nuclear program. Today, Iran declared it is speeding up its nuclear enrichment after being rebuked by I.A.E.A..

“Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God” - Jesus, in Matthew 5:9.

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