What is Next for Iran and Israel? It All Depends ...

11 hours ago

The following news clips and developments may give us a clue on what to expect for the new world order now that Trump has started his second term this month:

Trump's harsh rhetoric and ultimatums to Iran, considered as "bullying" and disrespectful by Iran's proud and conservative leader, has weakened the stance of Iran's new President, Dr. Pezeshkian, and advisor, former FM Javad Zarif, who are both advocates of direct talks with the US and open to a two-state solution for Palestine and Israel. Trump may not realize that diplomacy with the Eastern world (including Iran) requires soft respectful talks and not ultimatums, at least not in the public.

Iranians feel betrayed by Russia. Recently an IRGC Commander publicly acknowledged that "Russia Betrayed us in Syria!" He also stated that Iran has new plans to recruit anti-Israeli forces in Syria. The communist China may become Islamic Iran's new big brother replacing Russia and Iranian regime's last hope to stand up to the US and Israeli pressures. After all, Iran and China seem to face Taliban in Afghanistan as a common threat and China really wants access to Iran's oil and natural gas reserves at low prices given Iran's strategic vulnerability and fragility. If Trump's tariff pressure on China and political/military pressures on Iran prove to be too harsh, it will force Iran and China together and make China Iran's new big brother.

With weaker prospects of a deal between Iran and the US, Israel is getting ready to take advantage of Iran's isolation to perhaps knock down Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile sites, enough to cripple the Ayatollahs for years, maybe even hoping for domestic uprisings to end the anti-Israeli regime. Israel's timeline in any attack will depend on two key factors: (1) The delivery of advanced defense systems to block Iran's counterattack using hypersonic missiles, (2) Success of Phase 2 of the cease fire deal in Gaza, which is scheduled to end major troop deployments in GAZA by Mid April, allowing Israel's army to free up resources to directly face what they call the "Head of serpent" in Iran. If Jordan and Egypt resist Trump's plan for kicking Palestinians out of Gaza, Israel's plans to end Gaza war and attack Iran may be delayed.

Iran, meanwhile, has been conducting numerous military and first-responders' drills, including one yesterday for "Major emergency in Tehran" which shut down the capital's airport for a few hours. IRGC commanders and Iran's Leader have also stepped up their rhetoric and harsh warnings to Israel and the US if they plan any attacks.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Emirates seem to be succeeding in their long-term plan (since 2016) to improve US-Russia and Arab-Israel relations. This could mean sacrificing interests of Ukraine and Iran in that process and weakening China's global economic position. According to a 2018 article in The New Yorker: "During a private meeting shortly before the November 2016, election, Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, floated to a longtime American interlocutor what sounded, at the time, like an unlikely grand bargain. The Emirati leader told the American that Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, might be interested in resolving the conflict in Syria in exchange for the lifting of sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.. As an inducement for Putin to partner with Gulf states rather than Iran, the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia started making billions of dollars in investments in Russia and convening high-level meetings in Moscow, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and the Seychelles...Separately, a former U.S. official recalled having a conversation after Trump’s Inauguration with an Israeli Cabinet minister with close ties to Netanyahu in which the minister pitched the American on the idea of “trading Ukraine for Syria.."

Well, it looks like The New Yorker story was accurate. Syria is traded for Ukraine and soon parts of Ukraine will be annexed to Russia during Trump's second term. The only new party to this old plan seems to be Turkey, who received her share of the deal by occupying parts of Syria.

A major part of Trump's strategy on Iran relies on maximizing economic pressures on the Ayatollahs and IRGC to deprive them of foreign currency they need to re-established their foothold in Lebanon and Syria. Iranian currency has plunged again to new historic record lows. One Iranian Tooman is now worth 15000 times less than its value vs. the US dollar in 1979 when the Islamic revolution succeeded. Inflation is now at record high levels approaching 50% a year. The Iranian regime seems very unpopular with urban populations, women and the working class. The Leader recently delayed implementation of the mandatory head scarf laws fearing another uprising by educated Iranian women. If Israel's attack on Iran's military and nuclear sites weakens the regime enough that it loses its ability to crack down on a new nationwide protest, like those seen during the Green, Students, and and Woman-Life-Freedom movements. So economic pressures, inflation, and a major Israeli attack could bring an end to Iran's theocratic regime. Even Trump recently implied if there are no deals with Iran, THEY may lose their life. He was probably referring to targeted assassination of Iran's top leaders by Israel.

If the Ayatollahs swallow their pride to stay alive and in power, and end up complying with Trump's demands, and abandon their nuclear ambitions, missile programs and deescalate tensions with Israel and Saudi Arabia. That may bring Iran new economic opportunities as the lifeline it badly needs in order to cut its military dependence on China and possibly Russia. This "peaceful" option is what Sean Stone calls the path to building a peace-based economy in the Middle East instead of forever wars and weapons-based economies.

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