Who is Winning the Clock? Miscalculations in Iran-US War

Three hours ago

Opinion Letter By Dr. Bazargan

On many levels, the US-Iran war is like a high stake game of chess. Each side can only make certain moves with their limited pawns and pieces, so whoever runs out of time will lose!

The Iranian clock is running against crippling inflation (food prices higher by 100-400% in a year), unemployment, plunging of currency valuation and critical shortages of fuel and electricity. By some accounts, the 6-month emergency supplies of foreign currency, food and fuel are about half way exhausted so Iran’s clock may end after three more months of blockage and war.

For the US, it’s the connection between gasoline prices, inflation and interest rates, and the fate of Trump and Republicans in the November elections. Similar to Iran, the US has also exhausted about half of its strategic oil reserves. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 307.65 million barrels, reaching its lowest level since 1983. So Trump is also facing a 3-month game clock to either defeat the Ayatollahs or lose face and an election.

The rest of the world, except perhaps China and Russia, may even have less than three months to exhaust their fuel and energy resources. There is only about 110 million barrels of authorized, unreleased oil left in the reserves of International Energy Agency (IEA) members, enough for about two more months at the current crisis drawdown rates.

But then in this war, all sides seem to be making serious miscalculations. Iran assumes striking US and oil assets in Arab countries would impel them to stop the war, not realizing damaged infrastructures mean deepening Arabs’ dependence on America for reconstruction and huge future contracts for US oil and defense contractors.

Trump, on the other hand, thinks knocking out scattered army posts and killing a few speed boat gunmen will force the Iranian leadership to compromise. He is ignoring the fact that damaged bases and ammunition means more power, budget and budgets for IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corp). Killing more militants will also boost the recruiting and propaganda power of the remaining militants. Revenge for martyrs is the ultimate raison d’etre of a radical militant regime in Iran.

Given the level of mistrust between Trump and the IRGC, and relentless “Kill Trump” calls by Iran’s radical minority, a peace treaty is unlikely, at least with the current Iranian regime in power. On the battle ground, informed analysts believe Trump may gain the upper hand by arming Iranian dissidents and empowering a popular liberation movement, in which the fed up 85% could topple the ruling militant 15%. This almost happened in January before the regime opened fire on thousands of unarmed revolutionaries.

The Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, on the other hand, would gain a strategic advantage over America by initiating ground proxy offensives in countries like Lebanon, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and by ensuring oil prices remain high for the foreseeable future, at least before the November elections in America.

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