Iran ranked 2 among top risks for global stability in 2010
The annual report by Eurasia Group this year ranks Iran, right after the tension in China-US relations, as the greatest geopolitical risk to world stability. In parts of this report we read:
"By far the biggest purely geopolitical risk in 2010 comes from Iran. Its government now faces growing pressure on three fronts. At home, the regime has had a tough time since last June’s presidential election; hardliners had initially consolidated, but are now under intensifying pressure as domestic protests continue. Regionally, Tehran has lost considerable influence, with elections in Lebanon turning against Hizbullah, rising Iraqi nationalism making it harder for Tehran to exert influence upon their principal historic competitors, and Iran’s financial outpost in Dubai put at risk by the growing influence of Abu Dhabi.
Globally, Iran faces a considerably tougher sanctions regime over its nuclear program, a push spearheaded by the United States, Europe, and Japan, with even Russia and China unhappy over Tehran’s aggressive rhetoric. A Western push for negotiations will continue, but divisive local politics and insufficient leadership coordination make it very unlikely that Iran’s leadership could reach a negotiated settlement even if it wanted one. And it doesn’t. Even under considerable domestic pressure, the hardliners in charge of the regime will continue to try to buy time to achieve their nuclear ambitions.
That’s why the government is likely to overreact to sanctions when they hit. 2010 carries the highest risk to date of Iranian provocation in the region, in the form of harassment of shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, support for radical organizations in neighboring countries, and instigation of trouble for Iraq and other neighbors in demonstrations of muscle. The Iranian regime looks increasingly like a cornered, wounded animal. In 2010, it’s likely to act like one."
Complete report on Eurasia Group's website.
»This is a summary of the original feature in Farsi. To request a more extensive translation of the Farsi text, please contact us.
